Creighton
University's monthly survey of supply manager in 9 Midwest and Plains
states shows a regional economy that's still expanding...but at a
slower rate than earlier in the year...and remains in better shape
than the country as a whole.
Economist
Ernie Goss says the survey's overall index in August was 55.8...down
5 full points from July, but still above the growth-neutral point of
50. He says the news "isn't good, but could have been worse."
Goss
says the Mid-America region is showing a
lot more strength than the national economy,
continuing to add jobs at what he calls a "very healthy pace"
while national job growth has been nil.
Despite
that, the confidence index...the way the supply managers see
conditions 3-to-6 months down the line...dropped for the 4th straight
month to 52.4.
Goss understands why...given all the negative economic news nationally...they would feel that way despite
generally positive factors in the regional economy.
Despite
those numbers, more than a third of the
supply managers surveyed said the expect
another recession next year.
Goss personally does not expect a so-called "double dip" recession next year, and says most economists don't either.
The
Creighton survey has numbers for each state as well as the 9-state
region.
Nebraska's
overall index dropped almost 3-1/2 points from July to 57.5, but stay
above growth-neutral for the 12th straight month.
The
employment index was 57.0, but Goss says many industries are still
reluctant to add a lot of jobs. He points to durable
goods producers who are increasing output at a brisk rate but adding
jobs at a much more subdued pace.
Goss
says rail shipping has been very healthy and truck transportation a
bit softer in the state...while food processing firms have yet to
experience significant upturns in business activity.
